UK Long Range monthly forecasts

February 2012 long range forecast & January 2012 retrospective:

Key points for the weather in the period include

Temperature- overall mean (CET for England); slightly below average (-1.0C)
UK rainfall –rather below average (80% of the average)
UK sunshine –slightly above average (115% of the average)
Winds- rather below average strength & predominantly anticyclonic or NW’ly
Frost and snow –near average

February 2012 summary

February looks likely to be rather chilly at times though it will be milder in the west especially by the end of week one and at times throughout the month. The east will stay colder but there’ll be milder interludes here as well at times. It will be generally quite dry overall for most parts but less so in the north west and driest overall in the SE & east probably. Sunshine is likely to be slightly above average overall but nearer to average in the north west and rather above average in the south. Frost and snow seems likely to be above average for most parts though the NW may see these closer to average.

In week one from the 1st-7th January it seems likely a very cold E’ly flow will become established in the south at first with the risk of light snow flurries over the east and SE in particular and frosts by day with locally severe night frosts. However milder air in the NW will soon push east as it becomes less settled from the west with strong W to SW’ly winds developing, more especially in the north west keeping it milder with some rain at times. This milder weather will work across all parts by the 4th bringing a period of snow in places as it does so. However, the far SE may stay colder a little longer. High pressure seems likely to be re-establishing itself by the end of the week though, across the south, bringing generally drier, brighter weather into all parts, though the north & NW may well stay cloudier and breezy and see some rain and showers at times, quite heavy in places. Temperatures by day near average in the north west and milder for a time but generally colder in the south and east overall, with some very cold nights in places for a time away from coasts. Milder for a time generally but still some chilly nights inland in the east & central parts by later in the week. The rainfall below average everywhere but closer to average further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near or slightly above average for most parts but perhaps slightly below average further northwest.

In week two, from the 8th-14th February high pressure will likely lie close to the UK for a time giving a misty or foggy nights and frost by night, locally moderate inland but fronts working east in the west are likely to bring more in the way of cloud and rain here as low pressure runs to the north of Scotland and another low may run SE down across the UK and allow some colder air SW across the north and east in its wake for a time with wintry showers across the north and east. The south may be milder for a time with some rain or sleet and as it turns colder during the week there may be some snow as well. Pressure generally then rising from the west by the end of the week. Temperatures by day somewhat below average though locally quite mild for a time in the west and probably the south but generally a bit colder in the north and a few days will be cold. Some frosts by night inland. Rainfall staying rather below average in the south & east & probably central areas as well of the UK but a little closer to average further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near or slightly below average for most northern parts but perhaps a little above average in the south east & east.

By week three from the 15th-21st February there are no strong indications of what is most likely. However the south & east may stay more under the influence of high pressure in this period but there’s a risk of wintry showers at times here as well but it seems the north may be more unsettled rain and showers at times perhaps with a trend towards a colder spell as low pressure runs south east into the North Sea and high pressure re-develops to the west over the Atlantic. This would likely bring wintry weather across some areas more esp in the north & north west for a few days before the high pressure ran east from the Atlantic and quietened things down for a time. There may still be some moderate night frosts inland in this period.

Not especially cold anywhere on the whole but equally not too mild either away from the far south west; the nights should not be too cold, although frosts are very possible in inland areas under the influence of high pressure but a bit colder after midweek everywhere with the risk of frost by night. Rainfall will likely be near or slightly above average for the north & west but elsewhere below average, sunshine will likely be near or a little above average in most southern parts but slightly below average in the northwest.

The last week from the 22nd-29th February is –as ever –uncertain particularly at the moment , so we are suggesting- mainly based on climatology and patterning- a rather unsettled theme is possible for the north as high pressure moves away south east again early in the week. Low pressure areas running close to the north west at times bringing fronts and associated cloud and rain. The south & east may be drier both earlier on and see some mist, fog and frost by night inland. The north may still see some quite wintry weather for a time as well though in this period, more especially over hills. Near or a little below average temperatures on the whole though the nights will not be too chilly in the north. Rainfall will be slightly below average overall but perhaps near average in the NW and rather below in the SE. Sunshine may be near or slightly below average in the west & NW though perhaps nearer average in the east & SE. Sea temperatures seem likely to be slightly above average for most eastern and southern coastal areas but becoming about average around northern & western coasts and slightly below in places with soil temperatures generally near average for most parts initially but slightly above average in the north and decreasing a little generally as the month continues and soil moisture near or locally above average in the SW though average for most western & northern areas, though remaining rather below average across SE and eastern England.

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UK SUMMARY MAP FOR FEBRUARY 2012