UK Long Range monthly forecasts


WW February 2014 long range forecast & January 2014 retrospective:  

Key points for the weather in the forecast period include 
  • Temperature-  overall mean (CET for England); rather above average (+1.4C)
  • UK rainfall –rather above average (140% of the average)
  • UK sunshine – rather below average (85% of the average)
  • Winds- rather above average strength & predominantly W’ly
  • Frost- somewhat below average overall
Monthly retrospective for January 2014 

January was an above average month temperature wise, with rather above average sunshine and very wet overall; though this only as a result of the south being extremely wet . It was rather a windy month as well.
The Hadley CET was above average by 1.9C at 5.8C. However Northern Ireland and Highland & western Scotland was very near average. The first tercile was very mild but the second tercile was actually slightly below normal across the UK as a whole. Rainfall anomalies were well above average in most of southern England and in some areas the month saw the highest January totals on record. Whilst the first tercile was very wet (especially in the south) the north & east of Scotland was near average overall. Sunshine was perhaps surprisingly well above in the south east, East Anglia & the Midlands, up to 150% in fact. The second tercile was particularly sunny. However western Scotland in particular was very dull seeing only 50% of the average. Surprisingly despite the mild weather sea temperature anomalies fell generally leaving much of the SW below average though only slightly. They remained about a degree above average off the SE English coast and northern Scottish coasts though. 

February 2014 forecast summary

In week one, low pressure looks like dominating the weather with deep areas of low pressure over or to the NW of the UK much of the time bringing unsettled weather for all parts and the risk of gales, local flooding and coastal flooding as well. In week 2 more depressions will run close to the UK bringing more rain, and windy weather with gales. and it may become rather colder with polar maritime air bringing more wintryness in the showers, especially in Scotland and some local frosts. A respite at the end of week two seems likely with a period of more settled weather for a time as high pressure is more in charge. Low pressure again bringing rain and gales in week 3 but it may be confined more to the west and SW, the east drier but cold at night with frosts. The month ending perhaps more settled but rather cold with some frosts & night fog inland.  

In more detail then; week one from the 1st-7th February it seems like deep areas of low pressure, with us for much of January will continue to dominate, mainly centred NW of Ireland. Initially then, a deep low will run NE across the far northern UK bringing showery rain & gales for many esp in the NW. A showery breezy westerly flow for a day before more wind & rain follows into the west on the 3rd as another deep low runs W of Ireland and yet another on the 4th to dominate the weather for a few days, with more rain, storm force winds in the exposed west and some damaging waves & swell. There may well be further problematic flooding in the west and SW in this period. Gale to storm westerly winds in the SW on the 5th & into the 6th as a very deep low dominates across the UK  for another few days, with more storm winds in the more exposed west and NW. By the 7th possibly a deeper low moving to the south of the UK bringing more rain & local gales here, showery in the north, some hill snow.  Given the saturated ground more local flooding is very likely and with high winter tides coastal flooding cannot be ruled out.  

Generally temperatures will be above average during the week by night and day with little in the way of any frost by night inland. Rainfall will be well above average across most parts but especially the south & SW. Sunshine amounts will be below average in most parts though eastern areas may do a little better overall.  

In week 2, from the 8th-14th February it looks most likely that after a very short lived weak ridge across the southern UK, further low pressure and its related fronts will quickly  run in from the west by the 8th bringing more wet, windy weather to all parts. There’s a risk this may bring some more widespread sleet or snow for a time to the Scottish Highlands and later wintry showers across the UK as a shot of colder polar maritime air wraps around the depression but by the 9th possibly another deep low running across the south with rain & gales or severe gales developing. Despite the winds some chilly nights inland with icy patches about. By midweek lighter winds and perhaps some high pressure dominating, initially some wintry showers about in the north. The week ending with the cool polar maritime or colder polar flow predominating, keeping it chilly with wintry showers on exposed eastern or northern coasts , these sometimes coming inland as troughs move east in the N’ly flow but generally drier inland with night frosts especially in the east.   

Temperatures will generally be near average at first with mild nights but it will become rather below average later and rather cold in the north in the more polar flow at times. Rainfall will be generally near average in most parts but above average in some western  areas; sunshine rather above average for eastern parts, somewhat nearer average in the west on the whole.

By week three from the 15th-21st February any high pressure moving away and low pressure will likely soon back in charge as we start week 3 as wind & rain moves into the west. Generally it looks rather chilly initially with some mist & fog by night with frost in places too. There will be outbreaks of rain & possibly some sleet with hill snow at times at first but more likely becoming milder from the west though the east may stay a bit more settled and chilly too under the influence of  Scandinavian or central European high pressure.  There could be rather a lot of low cloud about too at times, especially at night 

Temperatures a little below average but perhaps more likely back to average by midweek in the west. Rainfall back to near average in the west but it may be slightly below average in parts of the SE, east and NE. Sunshine generally near or above average but possibly closer to average in parts of the NW and south & SW.  

By week four we have rather low confidence but think there’s a possibility of a more settled pattern developing again with high pressure to the west or across the UK for a time. A risk of low pressure areas running SE more to the south; maybe some frost & fog by night, especially inland initially. The precipitation will likely be mainly of rain in the south west but may give some more wintry outbreaks at times too especially in the north across Wales & N Ireland with a risk of sleet & snow further south at times as well.  

Temperatures slightly below average in this period with somewhat below average rainfall and near average sunshine for most.

Sea temperatures seem likely to stay near average in the SE, north & NW but remaining rather below average by the month’s end in the SW. Soil moisture will be near or slightly above average in most areas of England & Wales but nearer average in Scotland and Northern Ireland but generally starting to decrease a little through tercile 2 in much of the Uk.     

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The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. Wiseweather (trading as 'David Wiseman Business Consultancy') is providing this data "as is" and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will Wiseweather or its contactors be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.

2015-10-30 10:41:35