How do we make our
forecasts?
Forecasting the weather is
a skill that requires a wide range of expert knowledge, understanding and patience. We'll use a blend of these to carefully
prepare your forecast for you by hand; none of our forecasts simply use the kind of automated data that you'll often
see in the free 3-5 day forecasts widely available on the web for example, which are prone to errors as they simply
roll off a computer unchecked for accuracy by human intervention.
For forecasts between two
and four weeks ahead we'll use a blend of climatological data and patterning, the latest indicators where correlation
to European weather patterning is scientifically known to exist (such as NAO, AO, ENSO, current El Nina/La
nino patterns and sunspot activity) and blend these with our own seasonal forecasts.
For forecasts between one
and two weeks out we'll use all the above but also our own latest four week forecast, recent weather patterning
and trends, recent temperature and rainfall anomalies, current ground state, local sea water temperatures and anomalies, current
European snow cover, recent blocking patterns and so on.
Forecasts a week away will
be the most accurate, particularly in settled conditions and we will use traditional techniques to develop these
forecasts.