Wiseweather long range forecast success rate climbs 21% in last eight months
How we calculate our
forecast ratings -
We compare each forecast with the actual values presented officially
by the Met Office at the end of each month.
We actually use the latest 1971-2000 'CET means' to compare against
the temperatures but -like the UKMO- the 1961-90 means for England and Wales sunshine and rainfall. We then award
a rating to each element of the forecast, temperatures, rainfall and sunshine. We use the following criteria to award these
ratings. For rainfall & sunshine -if over 26% out =poor, 11-25% out =fair, 6-10% out =good, 5% or less out =very
good.
For temperatures - over 1.5C out =poor; 0.8-1.4C out =fair; 0.4-0.7C
out =good, less than 0.3C out =very good.
For months
where extreme value means are recorded this is not necessarily a reliable indicator though of forecast skill & accuracy
of course, so care needs to be taken in interpreting and using these figures.
