ISSUED Sat 27th June 1000Z

Apologies- the usual mountain forecast will return next week.

WARNINGS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER: -Risk of severe thundery outbreaks in Wales, the south & Midlands at times with localised flooding 

WEEKLY SUMMARY

High pressure dominant but pressure lower to the south later bringing a humid and very warm -or hot -airmass into these parts during the week; much of the period here will see the highest temperatures close to 27-31C by day. Thundery showers will break out at times giving some severe weather & torrential rain in places after midweek especially, through to the weekend. Generally staying rather less warm and somewhat cloudier in the north & NW generally.   

DAY BY DAY OUTLOOK

Monday June 29th looks likely at present to see a ridge of high pressure over the UK but thundery low pressure developing to the SW. Early mist and low cloud will clear from inland across England to give a fine, very warm or locally hot and muggy day here, with a lot of hazy sunshine. The north and NW cloudier with less sunshine. The SW and west, and especially Wales, will see showers develop by late morning, isolated ones spreading into Northern England too by the afternoon and these will become heavy and slow moving in places with some thunder. They should generally die out by the late evening but may continue throughout the night in some western areas. Temperatures should reach around 26-28C in the warmest parts of the south and SE but generally be around 21-23C in other areas and around coasts where sea breezes will set in, though more like 18-20C in Scotland and N Ireland. 

Tuesday 30th should see the high pressure stay over the North Sea with a warm weak SE'ly flow for most parts. A quite warm night but with few early mist and low cloud patches inland but mainly clear skies overnight for most across England, cloudier to the north and far west though with some light showers continuing. It should be mainly fine though muggy, very warm day again for most areas with hazy sunny periods by day. Some further heavy showers will likely break out inland across western and central parts by the afternoon, perhaps thundery and locally giving a lot of rain as they'll be slow moving. Some cooling sea breezes around the coasts will keep it cooler here with the risk of some sea haar affecting eastern coasts too . Temperatures around coasts and in the north of England, N ireland and Scotland 19-22C but a warm muggy 23-25C in Wales and the west Midlands, up to 25-27C in the south and east along with E Midlands given enough sunshine.

Wednesday 1st July looks most likely to see high pressure across most of the UK in a very warm continental mass allowing gradual destabilisation, probably a weak SEly flow continuing for most parts. Some showers continuing overnight in the north & NE of England and S Scotland still, possibly thundery. A few mist patches inland to start after a muggy night and some low cloud too, so locally a quite dull murky start for some but soon clearing to become very warm or hot and very muggy though cooling sea breezes will develop arond some coasts. Cloudy will build by late morning though and thundery showers will likely break out in the Midlands, east and NE of England today, some heavy & slow moving with the risk of flash flooding. Temperatures generally 24-27C but in the central southern sunniest areas they should reach more like 28-29C, and locally up to 30C.  

Thursday 2nd looks likely at present to see high pressure pulling away to the east a little more and the flow across the UK becoming a slightly stronger SE'ly one. A clear warm dry night in central and eastern areas giving a few mist patches but generally rather a lot of cloud about in the west and NW, a few showers here still, possibly with some overnight thunderstorms in the SW. Cloud breaking up fairly readily by mid morning especially in the south and it will soon beciome very warm or hot again. Showers soon developing quite widely across the west & south west though, and these will be heavy & thundery again in places, giving local flash flooding in places, especially across Wales. Temperatures may reach around 27-30C in the hottest spots across the south & east but generally be around 23-25C, though may be pegged back to around 17-22C in the north and NW of the UK.